Two pricing pressures are working their way through ocean freight in 2026, and both are showing up in shipper budgets faster than most brokers can explain them. The first is bunker fuel: VLSFO and LNG prices have moved more than 15% YoY across most major bunker hubs, partly Middle East tension, partly post-IMO 2020 demand structure. The second is the IMO's intermediate decarbonization mandates, which are reshaping how carriers price new contracts.
Why this is a sales moment
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Most shippers' procurement teams are not equipped to translate IMO regulatory headlines into specific budget impact. Carriers know the rates well. Brokers and forwarders who can explain how a specific shipper's lane mix translates into expected surcharge and contract pressure can have a different kind of conversation — less rate-card, more advisory. That's a high-value position to hold in a stressed pricing environment.
Three concrete things to know
One: bunker adjustment factor (BAF) recalculations are happening more frequently in 2026 than the historical norm. Carriers are pushing more pricing volatility back to shippers via shorter recalculation windows. Two: emissions surcharges (ETS, FuelEU Maritime, IMO MEPC adjustments) layer on top of BAF and are not yet uniformly disclosed. Shippers see the line items but often don't know which to negotiate. Three: shippers using LNG-fueled carriers are seeing a different cost structure than those on conventional fuel — brokers who track this can position around carriers more accurately.
What this means for your team
Stop opening shipper conversations with pricing. Open with cost intelligence. "We see you've been on Hapag-Lloyd FCL contracts on this lane. Their MEPC surcharge structure for Q2 2026 looks like X. Here's what we've seen comparable shippers do." That's a meeting. "We can get you a better rate" is not.